The Monthly Roundup: Bethany Allen on phishing season in the U.S.
ASPI Cyber, Technology & Security Head of China Investigations and Analysis Bethany Allen on the escalating cybersecurity threats to U.S. elections + her top picks from the Digest this month.
This is a special edition of ASPI's Daily Cyber & Tech Digest, a newsletter that focuses on the topics we work on, including cybersecurity, critical technologies, foreign interference & disinformation. Sign up for it here.
Welcome to the very first edition of The Daily Cyber & Tech Digest Monthly Update! Each month, an ASPI expert will share their top news picks and provide their own take on one key story. Kicking things off is Bethany Allen, Head of China Investigations at ASPI CTS.
Is the U.S. prepared for election-related cyber operations?
This year marks the third U.S. presidential election cycle in a row that foreign state-backed cyber information operations are a major concern — and the first in which AI-powered online disinformation is widespread. The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in June that it has detected an increase in foreign efforts to target U.S. political candidates and government officials, and that it has stepped up its warnings to those targeted. Earlier this month, the Trump campaign said it had been targeted by Iran-affiliated hackers, which U.S. officials soon confirmed.
U.S. officials, media outlets, and political organizations have learned some lessons from 2016. That year, when Russian government hackers stole emails from top Democrats and handed them over to Wikileaks, media outlets gave plumb coverage to the leaks and U.S. security officials waited months before they publicly released information about their investigation of the hacks.
But this year, U.S. officials took just slightly over a week to publicly confirm the Trump campaign’s claims about being hacked by Iran. That kind of speedy and transparent reaction can help stabilize the national discussion about it, prevent politicization of basic facts, and blunt the effects of what Iran hoped would be a Russia-style hack-and-dump attack that could hijack the U.S. national debate for weeks or months.
U.S. media outlets also responded with greater care. Politico, the New York Times, and the Washington Post were all sent caches of Trump campaign files from an anonymous source before the hack was made public; all three outlets declined to publish them.
But experts warn the U.S. remains vulnerable. Efforts to combat online disinformation have flagged as social media companies have rolled back their efforts to fight disinformation and misinformation. Indeed, X owner Elon Musk has used his own X account with its 195 million followers to amplify misinformation. AI-powered disinformation has already surfaced in numerous elections held in other countries already this year. The U.S. Federal Elections Commission hasn’t yet adopted rules to govern the use of AI in election ads. Meanwhile, the number of actors involved in election interference continues to grow. U.S. officials have warned that in addition to Russia, China and Iran, smaller players like Cuba may also get involved.
With AI in the mix, the disinformation landscape is more uncertain than ever.
My must-reads
Rest of World: 2024 AI Elections Tracker
As more than 2 billion people in 50 countries head to the polls this year, artificial intelligence-generated content is now widely being used to spread misinformation, as well as to confuse and entertain voters. Throughout 2024, Rest of World is tracking the most noteworthy incidents of AI-generated election content globally.
CNN: Inside Iran’s hacking operation that has US officials on edge ahead of 2024 election
A CNN review of the hacking group, which experts believe works on behalf of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reveals previously unreported details of the hackers’ multiyear operation, including how they have targeted former members of both the Trump and Biden administrations.
New York Times: China’s Advancing Efforts to Influence the U.S. Election Raise Alarms
Covert Chinese accounts are masquerading online as American supporters of former President Donald J. Trump, promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November, according to researchers and government officials...In an echo of Russia’s influence campaign before the 2016 election, China appears to be trying to harness partisan divisions to undermine the Biden administration’s policies.
Miami Herald: Cuba will attempt to influence 2024 elections in Florida, U.S. intelligence warns
The U.S. intelligence community believes the Cuban government will attempt to influence U.S. elections in 2024, possibly deploying targeted campaigns to affect state and local races in Florida, officials with the Office of Director of National Intelligence said. The assessment comes after the director’s office assessed last year that Havana attempted to affect midterm elections in Florida in 2022.